Democrats are heading for a majority government, but the Republicans aren’t going out without a fight. According to Polly, Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s patented AI, in many districts Republicans and Democrats are still running neck-and-neck.
“In spite of the controversy surrounding the President, we still see 80 districts that are currently within the margin of error, which means the races in those districts are too close to call.”
– Erin Kelly, CEO, Advanced Symbolics Inc.
Polly, the world’s most advanced market research AI, has flagged at least 80 districts where candidates are within five points of each other. In these districts, a handful of important issues are mobilizing voters on the left.
Issues Moving the Needle
Despite a low national unemployment rate, left-leaning Americans are concerned about the quality of jobs that have been created under this President. Some feel the jobs are low-tech and not preparing America to compete in the future.
The anger over the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court remains a major issue for many Democrat voters and will draw them to the polls.
For those less-partisan voters, healthcare is an issue that is top-of-mind. While this issue is not driving the Democratic base to turn out, it could push votes of undecided voters toward the Democratic ticket.
With Trump denigrating the caravan of migrants approaching the Mexico-U.S. border and his intentions to end birthright citizenship, immigration is a hot topic that could bring Republican voters out to the polls. The immigration issue, however, isn’t mobilizing the extreme right, but instead, Polly sees immigration as an issue that could cause voters to vote Republican who otherwise would not.
While it is common to see a low voter turnout in Midterm elections, trends point to a higher than average voter turnout favouring the Democrats. Right now, Polly sees the Democrats are trending toward a 224-seat win over the Republicans in the House.
Polly has a strong track record, accurately predicting the 2015 Canadian Federal election, the Brexit referendum, the 2016 American election, and the 2018 Ontario Provincial Election where ASI was the official pollster for TVOntario.
5 Districts to Watch
There are upwards of 80 tight races in this year’s Midterms and Polly has pinpointed five interesting races that can be won by either party on Nov. 6th:
|District||Points of Interest|
|Florida – 6th Congressional District||Heading into the election the incumbent was Ron DeSantis (R), who was first elected in 2012. DeSantis resigned September 10, 2018, in order to focus on a gubernatorial bid.|
|Wisconsin – 1st Congressional District||Formerly Paul Ryan’s district, the incumbent is retiring, making way for a battle between two new challengers: Randy Bryce (D) and Ryan’s former aide, Bryan Steil (R).|
|Virginia – 5th Congressional District||The district hasn’t elected a Democratic representative since 2008. However, the incumbent at the start of the campaign, Tom Garrett (R), announced on May 28 that he is battling alcoholism and would not run in the 2018 election.|
|Maine – 2nd Congressional District||Incumbent Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) is up against state Rep. Jared Golden (D), Tiffany Bond (I) and Will Hoar (I). No incumbent has lost an election for Maine’s 2nd District since 1916.|
|Nebraska – 2nd Congressional District||A close race with signs pointing to a voter lean toward Republican incumbent Don Bacon.|
(Feature Photo by: Mirah Curzer)