Immigration has become a notable swing issue for voters as Americans head to the polls Tuesday in the 2018 Midterm elections.
Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s patented AI, Polly, is monitoring voter trends closely and sees signs that President Trump has been successful in bringing immigration to the attention of many swing voters. While immigration is often seen as an issue that plays to the extreme right, swing voters have taken notice and momentum has switched to the Republicans.
“While the Democrats are still projected to win the House, popular issues on the minds of swing voters have changed dramatically. Momentum is on the side of the Republicans right now.” – Erin Kelly, CEO, Advanced Symbolics
The Trump administration has been actively maligning a caravan of migrants approaching the Mexico – U.S. border and recently announced a plan to end birthright citizenship. These issues have successfully pushed health care—an issue that benefits the left— and scandals such as Brett Kavanagh’s appointment to the Supreme Court out of the limelight.
On Oct. 22nd Polly recognized 9.07 million people talking about health care, while currently, only 7.70 million people are actively engaging on the issue. In comparison, there are 13.2 million people talking about immigration, when only 9.0 million people were talking about the issue two weeks ago. Almost twice as many people are talking about immigration than health care—a major change in voter engagement from two weeks ago when health care was top of mind for swing voters.
Despite the change, Polly still predicts the Democrat base will turn out in large numbers and take the House.
Polly has a strong track record, accurately predicting the 2015 Canadian Federal election, the Brexit referendum, the 2016 American election, and the 2018 Ontario Provincial Election where ASI was the official pollster for TVOntario.