Despite a major push by Republicans to control the narrative running up to Election Day, Polly is predicting the Democrats will take the house in the 2018 Midterms with 223 seats.
“While President Trump’s administration has made immigration top-of-mind for voters, the most talked about issue of the election is actually Trump himself.”
– Erin Kelly, CEO, Advanced Symbolics Inc.
Advanced Symbolics Inc.’s AI, Polly, sees the most likely scenario is a Democratic House win with 223 seats (up from 193), handing a loss to the Republicans who are most likely take 212 seats—a loss of 23.
Important Issues for Democrats
Polly has been monitoring the election and sees a 93% chance the Democrats will take the House from the Republicans in tomorrow’s Midterms. While there have been a lot of issues debated during the election campaign, the Democratic base is predicted to show up in big numbers. President Trump is the most talked about issue with 19.4 million people talking about Trump online; in fact, more Democrats have talked about Trump throughout the campaign than Republicans.
Along with President Trump himself, jobs (17.9 million), justice (16.4 million) and healthcare (7.7 million) are the main issues that continue to resonate with Democrats.
A best-case scenario for the Democrats sees them winning 231 seats—a clear majority—and the Republicans taking 204 seats.
Important Issues for Republicans
According to Polly, the Republicans still have a 7% chance to keep the House. Immigration is an issue that President Trump and his administration have been focusing on for much of the election campaign, and Polly has seen signs that immigration has become a top-of-mind issue for swing voters—14 million people are engaging on the issue of immigration. President Trump has actively maligned a caravan of migrants currently walking through Mexico, recently announced plans to end birthright citizenship in the country, and has continued to claim that the Democrats will open the border and ruin the American economy.
In a best case for Republicans scenario, Polly sees the Republicans still having a small chance to eke out control of the house, taking 219 seats compared to 216 for the Democrats.