Spring is in the air, but more importantly for political junkies, the Liberals are about to release their federal budget on March 19th. And, as the budget looms, the Conservative Party is leading the way in seat count and popularity compared to Canada’s other main political parties.

Polly—our patented AI—has been monitoring Canadians’ views and opinions toward each political party and, if an election were held today, Polly sees the Conservatives winning 147 seats and 36% of the vote.

This is a dramatic change from the start of the month when, on March 4, the Liberals were projected to win 151 seats and 37% of the vote.

“It has been a rough few weeks to the Liberals. Polly has seen the Liberal party go from the clear leader in the polls to trailing the Conservatives in both seat count and voter support. While key Liberal players like Trudeau and Morneau seem to be safe in their ridings, the GTA is going to be an important election battleground for the two parties.”

-Erin Kelly, CEO, Advanced Symbolics Inc.

The Liberals are trailing in second with 136 seats and 34% of the vote, while the NDP is sitting at 40 seats and 16% of the vote. This means that even if the Liberals and NDP joined forces, the Conservatives could still hold power depending on the actions of the Bloc Quebecois (4 seats, 14% of the vote) and the Greens who would receive a single seat and 9% of the vote nation-wide.

Who is safe?

Despite the on-going focus on the SNC-Lavalin affair, Justin Trudeau is set to comfortably win his riding of Papineau where the Liberals are currently sitting at 45% support with the NDP a distant second at 24%. Finance Minister Bill Morneau, who is responsible for the budget, is safe in his riding of Toronto-Centre where 53% of voters intend to vote Liberal.

Keep an Eye on the GTA

Other ridings in the GTA, however, are much closer. The Conservatives and Liberals in a handful of GTA ridings are separated by 5% or less. These ridings include Markham-Stouffville, Markham-Thornhill, Mississauga-Erin Mills, Mississauga-Lakeshore, and Mississauga-Streetville.

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