Jason Kenney and the United Conservative Party (UCP) are heading for a majority win in Alberta’s provincial election thanks to strong rural support throughout the province.

Polly—our patented AI—has been following the build-up to the election and monitoring the intentions of Alberta voters. With less than 24 hours before Albertans head to the polls, with a 95% confidence interval, Polly is predicting a UCP majority with the party taking between 48 and 66 seats and the NDP taking between 20 and 37 seats. The most likely scenario will see the UCP take 60 seats and the NDP winning 27.

Alberta Election Seat PRediction  *Results have a 95% confidence interval, with the UCP  winning between 48 – 66 seats and the NDP winning between 20 – 37 seats.

“Alberta is changing from Orange to Blue. The UCP is projected to win upwards of 66 seats and take power with a majority government. Although the NDP’s projected seat count did improve during the election build-up, it wasn’t enough to stop the UCP before election day.” 

– Erin Kelly, CEO, Advanced Symbolics

The regional break down of seats is striking: in the most likely scenario, all of the NDP’s 27 projected seats are in urban areas, including Edmonton, Calgary and Lethbridge. The UCP, on the other hand, is predicted to take 60 ridings throughout the province, especially in rural regions. Polly sees the NDP most likely to sweep Edmonton and Lethbridge, while the UCP will sweep all rural ridings and most Calgary ridings.

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